Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-27 2.266328 2.399588 2.544238 2.714434 2.911279 3.134510 3.410960
2025-05-04 2.118204 2.287431 2.479615 2.718071 3.012261 3.372815 3.865373
2025-05-11 2.015958 2.207054 2.431151 2.720416 3.095905 3.587292 4.322540
2025-05-18 1.907773 2.106938 2.345401 2.661457 3.086534 3.670358 4.609672
2025-05-25 1.839269 2.047883 2.302598 2.648944 3.131590 3.828951 5.046759
2025-06-01 1.778926 1.993853 2.260539 2.631052 3.163540 3.969194 5.493964
2025-06-08 1.725093 1.944208 2.219794 2.609800 3.185722 4.094735 5.957654
2025-06-15 1.695491 1.923125 2.213998 2.634813 3.277318 4.348105 6.802537
2025-06-22 1.627885 1.849771 2.134574 2.549221 3.188526 4.271658 6.846246
2025-06-29 1.596219 1.821711 2.114317 2.546995 3.230568 4.438635 7.609891
2025-07-06 1.547876 1.769836 2.059214 2.490017 3.178003 4.417422 7.832276
2025-07-13 1.535276 1.764500 2.067264 2.526641 3.283279 4.726314 9.384104
2025-07-20 1.530239 1.770136 2.092275 2.593217 3.453170 5.232184 12.811427
2025-07-27 1.505577 1.748105 2.076908 2.595694 3.509010 5.500651 16.184161
2025-08-03 1.482448 1.727186 2.061954 2.597431 3.563325 5.785091 21.932853
2025-08-10 1.444752 1.685012 2.014539 2.543838 3.505789 5.756535 24.212871
2025-08-17 1.421286 1.661772 1.993750 2.532405 3.529569 5.965194 35.598642
2025-08-24 1.397846 1.637820 1.970926 2.516126 3.541792 6.146693 63.915573
2025-08-31 1.374862 1.613831 1.947129 2.496801 3.545727 6.306690 363.966648
2025-09-07 1.364455 1.607044 1.948419 2.519514 3.639561 6.808381 NaN
2025-09-14 1.328121 1.562861 1.892418 2.441664 3.511021 6.477301 NaN
2025-09-21 1.313063 1.548436 1.880744 2.439633 3.547145 6.771458 NaN
2025-09-28 1.285731 1.516052 1.841141 2.387653 3.469723 6.612529 NaN